The Mortgage Guy Blog

Due to the holidays, year end house cleaning and illness, I haven’t posted in a couple of weeks. Well the new year is here and having taken care of the above issues, I am back to posting.

The question mark in the post title is no accident. This will be, without a doubt, the most challenging year we have ever faced in the mortgage industry. Will it be happy? Only time will tell.

The mortgage industry continues to shrink with the lender implode list reaching 210. Subprime product offerings remain slim. Essentially, there is no subprime as we once knew it. I have clients and friends that I cannot help due to products being discontinued. It literally keeps me up at night, knowing that a year ago, their problems would be solved but now they will only get worse and there is nothing I can do about it.

Alt A isn’t much better. The jumbo price spreads remain unusually large and product offerings in this class of loans are shrinking like the subprime offerings.

That leaves conventional loans. Fannie and Freddie pricing is pretty attractive right now. However, underwriting in this class of loans has tightened significantly as well. We are not an FHA shop so I won’t address that market other than to say, it’s not a panacea for the ills the industry faces, not that anyone said it was.

Let’s not forget that mortgage lending is collateral based. The collateral being real estate, the value of which is plummeting at record paces. Without adequate collateral, mortgages cannot be made. I don’t know how far real estate prices will fall but I can tell you this. Until the mortgage industry is repaired, values will decline in a historic manner.

In order for this year to be good for the mortgage industry, the process of securitizing mortgages must be repaired. The mortgage industry cannot survive without it. Real estate prices will need firm up as well. However as long as the mortgage industry is broken, that will not happen.

Another ingredient for a good year is for our government leaders to get a clue about what is going on and how to deal with it. Every government action to date clearly miss the marks needed to turn the situation around. Their so called solutions reveal their total lack of understanding of the situation at hand. It’s all show. “I care so re-elect me.” Meanwhile their actions will shrink an already devastated industry making consumer choices fewer and more expensive. It’s good thing they care.

Let me just say that when I started this blog it wasn’t my intention to become a gloom and doomer. That isn’t my nature. I am and always have been a “can do”, optimistic guy. But I am foremost a realist. I accept reality at face value in order to deal with it efficiently. The reason for the negativity in this blog is because in reality, we are faced with a very negative outlook.

There’s more to come. So let’s work at making 2008 a happy year. Good luck, we are all going to need it.

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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If it makes for good press, you can bet your last dollar that politicians will jump on the band wagon. This is so even if what makes good press, is a disaster in disguise. Saving people’s homes from foreclosure is good press.

Having said this, does it come as a surprise that Hillary Clinton is joining the chorus for a socialistic mortgage bailout? If it does, it shouldn’t. The following is a 4 minute video of Clinton’s speech to Wall Street, brought to you by Marketwatch.

Hillary Clinton’s Financial Ineptitude Documented

Some of her statements are correct. For example, Wall Street’s role in the mortgage meltdown and that it will impact the broader economy. However, she goes downhill fast after that.

Here is where she is dead wrong with her most dangerous statements listed first.

• Her threat to introduce legislation to disallow mortgage backed securities investors from suing. This will undoubtedly destroy mortgage securitization which is the backbone of the industry. Who will buy mortgage securities knowing that the government can change financial contracts on a whim and without the investors having any legal recourse? Is this even Constitutional?
• The ninety day moratorium on foreclosures is nearly as dangerous. Perverting the foreclosure process will also prevent investors from buying mortgage paper. Further, by the their own admission, the bailout will only affect a very limited number homeowners. Yet she suggests a moratorium on ALL foreclosures.
• What is to stop other homeowners from suing for better rates on their mortgages? It is discriminatory to freeze or lower some payments and not the payments of all homeowners. Who decides who gets what and under what circumstances?
• She claims rate resets are responsible for the meltdown, yet it’s been pointed out that at least half of those in default today, are doing so on their initial low teaser rates. It’s also been pointed out that falling values play a significant role in the increase in defaults. When homeowners realize that they are massively upside down in value, they often choose to default on their loans.
• Her assertion that mortgage brokers have a significant role in the mortgage meltdown is also a flawed position as I point out in this previous post.

The video is proof that Hillary Clinton, like George Bush, Henry Paulson, Barney Frank and Chuck Schumer, et al, are severely ill equipped to correct the mortgage and real estate meltdown. This becomes more evident each and every time these people open their mouths.

They are simply politicizing the issue without providing real solutions. Remember, their number one goal in life isn’t to help American homeowners, but to get elected and maintain or increase their power.

The freeze will only make the problem worse. Don’t drink the kool aid and prepare for some very rough times ahead. Times made even rougher with do nothing, feel good and very damaging initiatives.

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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It’s about time the powers that be recognize who is really to blame for the mortgage crisis. Andrew Cuomo, who by the way I am no fan of, is sending out Wall Street subpoenas.

Finally reality is setting in with the realization that a mere middleman in the mortgage process, simply cannot be the primary cause of the mortgage meltdown.

I’ve maintained that real bad guys are the risk management departments and credit ratings agencies. Seems like Cuomo agrees.

Marketwatch provides coverage of this newsworthy event.

The office of New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has sent subpoenas to request information from severalWall Street firms, including Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) , Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) and Deutsche Bank AG (DB) , The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Prosecutors in a broader investigation of the mortgage business are looking into how well the banks examined the quality of mortgages before packaging them into products sold to investors, the report said. The probe also focuses on how the debt was pooled into securities, including banks’ arrangements with credit-rating firms, the newspaper reported.

Ratings companies are also under pressure after asset-backed securities that were rated investment grade plunged in value as a result of the turmoil on credit and mortgage markets.

Banks and lenders often package pools of mortgages, create securities from them and sell them to other investors, rather than keeping them on the balance sheet.

A step in the right direction as it shows an understanding of what really happened to the mortgage backed securities market. As you know, without securitization, there is no mortgage industry.

The people charged with fixing the issue should be focusing on fixing the debt markets, like right now. If they do, we have a shot at limiting future economic damage caused by this mortgage and real estate meltdown. I know, I’m asking for too much.

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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The political, business and media elite will have you believe that the current historic mortgage default rate is due to adjustable rate mortgage payment/interest rate resets.

Consequently all three entities are pushing for socialistic remedies. These so called remedies will only worsen the problem by obliterating what is left of the mortgage industry.

Iamfacingforeclosure dot com posts a very interesting article that points out current mortgage defaults are not solely due to ARM resets. Not yet anyway… The emphasis is mine.

The national foreclosure rate has climbed steadily throughout 2007. While most reports attribute the bulk of the foreclosures to ARM resets, the reality is that more than half of the borrowers who are defaulting are still in their first year of the loan.

The abysmal failure of Credit Ratings Agencies and risk management departments of financial institutions to properly assess the risk aspects of subprime loans, have allowed for loan underwriting so lax that borrowers are defaulting on the low teaser rate payments. You can just imagine what will happen next year when mortgage payments rise by an average thirty three percent.

Bank of America Securities estimates that rates will reset on $362 billion worth of adjustable rate subprime mortgages in 2008. At the same time, resets will also occur on $152 billion worth of other loans with adjustable rates, such as Alt-A loans and jumbo loans (loans over $417,000).

The article is a good read and I encourage you to check it out.

As with many, if not all important issues facing the country and it’s middle class today, the mainstream media and our politicians cannot be looked to as reliant information sources. Every tid bit of information disseminated by these self serving entitities is slanted with some type of agenda.

Their tactics include lies, half truths and outright omission. Perhaps that is why the general public is totally oblivious to the economic crisis unfolding before our very eyes.

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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Below are selected news headlines that will bring you up to speed on the mortgage industry and the effects it is having on the overall economy. Basically the mortgage industry is broken. Wall Street will not buy mortgage securities so lenders aren’t meeting the demand for loans. Only the most credit worthy are able to borrow on favorable terms.

This is causing three major problems. One is nationwide real estate values are plummeting at a historical rate. The second problem is that homeowner’s ability to borrow has been greatly diminished and could disappear all together. The third problem is that lenders are not able to securitize their mortgages.

If they can’t securitize they won’t lend. Also due to the massive depreciation in the values of their mortgage security holdings, the lenders themselves are in jeopardy of going out of business.

If the consumer cannot borrow, the consumer will not spend money to keep the economy growing. Consequently, there are more and more predictions for a recession in 2008. The effects of the mortgage and real estate crisis on the economy are just beginning to be felt. In fact we’re in the very early stages of this economic meltdown.

In any event, here are some articles to support these views.

Articles pertaining to the subprime situation

• Subprime Crisis Not Over, More Writeoffs to Come
• Freddie Mac’s subprime losses may hit $5 billion: CS

Effects On The Economy

• Mortgage crisis a drag on Atlanta economy
• Report: Sharpest drop in housing prices in index’s history
• Consumer confidence lowest in two years

The Big “A” Paper Lenders Take Big Hits, It’s Spreading…

• Countrywide: No blow from Freddie loss
• Citigroup gets $7.5 billion infusion from Abu Dhabi
• UPDATE 1-Wells Fargo to take $1.4 bln charge for bad loans
• Freddie Mac hit by huge loss, says needs capital
• Fannie Mae shares hit decade low on loss concerns

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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In the course of a year, the mortgage industry has dramatically changed for the worst. Because Wall Street can no longer securitize mortgages efficiently, we have seen over 180 lenders go out of business and over 100,000 layoffs in the industry. It’s so bad, that even the strongest lenders are at the brink of failure.

Needless to say, this has negatively impacted the mortgage choices once available to home owners. Home owners looking to refinance now will find only a fraction of the programs that were once available to them. Many will not be able to refinance at all.

Now is not the time for procrastination. If you have decided to refinance, you are probably better off doing it right now. If you wait, only more lenders will go out of business and more mortgage programs taken off the shelf. It will be more difficult to qualify for any mortgage programs that are left.

Additionally, home values are falling daily. By waiting, the collateral used for the refinance will be worth less than today. This will affect the over all terms a borrower can get on the refinanced mortgage. Generally speaking, the higher the loan to value, the worse the terms. Value drops can be to the extent that PMI, or private mortgage insurance, could be necessary. Or worse, they can drop to the point where a refinance is no longer possible under any circumstances.

Even though the current interest rate environment might coerce home owners to wait for the coming lower rates, the value being lost in their homes can offset any benefit lower rates offer. If you get a rate that is a percentage point lower than today’s rate, but you have to take out PMI because your value dropped, what good is that? The cost for the PMI can more than offset the lower interest rate.

Besides, conventional rates are very attractive right now. It’s possible to get a sub 6% thirty year fixed rate mortgage as I write this. Fifteen year fixed rates are even lower. These are attractive rates by any standard.

The risk of not having viable refinancing options is too great. If you have a sensible loan scenario awaiting your approval, take advantage of it right now, while you still have equity and the mortgage programs still exist. If you are even thinking about doing anything with your mortgage in the next year or so, I encourage you to look at your options right now as you may not have them later.

Tags: Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate, Tips & Tricks by The Mortgage Guy
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One can hear the cries loud and clear. Homeowners looking for relief from upwardly adjusting mortgages and the politician’s cries that they must be helped. While I agree the home owners should be helped, I do so for different reasons. My main reason is to save the mortgage and real estate industries and probably the American economy as well.

Even if there were the political and financial will to assist these home owners by freezing or lowering their payments, chances are it cannot be done. Imposing a modification of debt notes on note holders, in such a way that it depreciates their value, is a dangerous endeavor. Such an initiative can destroy our debt markets and perhaps the securities market in general.

If payment freezes or reductions were imposed, the value of the mortgage security would be negatively impacted. As it stands now, a dollar of an adjustable rate mortgage security yields “x” in interest. Furthermore, the adjustable feature is a hedge against interest rate movements, the yield is determined by the spread, which remains constant.

Lowering the payment lowers the yield thus lowering the value of the mortgage security. Freezing the payment removes the hedge aspect of the mortgage security and that too can depreciate the value of the mortgage note.

Forcing note holders into either or both of these scenarios is unfair and destroys the integrity of the mortgage security. In my opinion, the only way to accomplish either freezing or lowering payments is to do so in such a way whereby the mortgage security/note maintains it current and future values. That is to say in exchange for freezing or lowering the payment schedule, the note holder must receive something of parity.

Equity Sharing

That something of parity can be sharing in future appreciation of the borrower’s home. The potential for a return on capital in the form of sharing home appreciation could offset the affects of lowering or freezing payments.

It could work something like this. At the time the mortgage note modifications are agreed upon, the property is appraised to establish a base line value. At some point in the future, either when the loan is refinanced or the property is sold, the note holder would receive a portion of the home’s appreciation.

As long as the home doesn’t appreciate in value, it cannot be refinanced. It can only be sold either at a loss or break even. In this case, the note holder wouldn’t receive any compensation for modifying the note. Except the benefit of keeping the note current and the receipt of current yield. Additionally, the expenses of foreclosure and a short sale are also avoided.

Because there is little on the table for the note holder if the property doesn’t appreciate, some incentive needs to be added here. That something can be some type of agreement on the borrowers part to agree to a streamlined and discounted foreclosure process should a worse case scenario evolve.

Thousands of dollars in expenses are incurred during the foreclosure process. This diminishes the net benefit to the note holder. By agreeing to a streamlined process, thousands in fees and expenses can be avoided.

Problem Solved

The home owner wins because they get to continue to afford to stay in their home. The note holder gets something of parity for modifying the note. The debt securities market maintains it’s integrity because the note holders aren’t left holding the bag. Confidence returns to the mortgage securitization process and the industry is saved thereby saving the real estate industry and the American economy.

Politicians get to make themselves look good, oop I mean help, by making the proper legislative adjustments to facilitate the modifications. They can even throw a finite and defensible amount of money at the problem if needed.

I’m not a securities analyst. I cannot provide the details of what would be necessary to satisfy the parity needs of the note holder. None the less, this is a scenario that has the potential of working. It’s far better than any plan that I have heard floated so far. That’s because to date, there are no plans to fix our very broken system.

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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A November 11 through 14 Gallup poll further reveals that only 20% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country. This is the worst poll reading of this kind since they started tracking this sentiment.

An extraordinary 78% of Americans now say the economy is getting worse, while a scant 13% say it is getting better. Gallup has been asking this question since 1991, and these are the most negative responses Gallup has ever recorded.

The American people realize there is little to be positive about. Trillions of dollars in wealth is evaporating before their eyes as their real estate values plummet. Even if they still have equity, lenders have tightened up guidelines to the extent that those who need help the most cannot get it.

The home equity ATM is closed. This is very bad news for the economy as home equity provided the cash for consumers to keep shopping. Now there is no longer a safety release valve for burgeoning credit card balances. This is pointed out in Newsweek’s Consumer Crunch article.

The main fuel for the spending was easy access to credit. Banks and other financial institutions were willing to lend households ever increasing amounts of money. Any particular individual might default, but in the aggregate, loans to consumers were viewed as low-risk and profitable.

The subprime crisis, however, marks the beginning of the end for the long consumer borrow-and-buy boom.

With the pressures of plummeting real estate values, a lack of liquidity due to the debt markets being in a shambles, a weak dollar and a consumer who is all but tapped out, is there any reason to believe economic recovery is anywhere in sight?

I didn’t even mention the ever escalating oil prices. The price of oil and gas has a similar affect on the economy as does a tightening in interest rates. So any relief the Fed gives us is being offset by higher oil prices. Yet the Fed believes their rate cuts are sufficient.

Until mortgage securitization becomes close to normal again, real estate prices will continue to fall and the liquidity crises will deepen. The mortgage and real estate crises will continue to grow as will it’s negative affects on the economy.

Now the over-worked consumer doesn’t have the resources to keep buying. Even if they had the resources, why would they want to with impending doom on the horizon. Consumer sentiment is souring by the minute.

It’s only a matter of time before this new development causes more negative ripples in the economy. It’s not unreasonable to expect cut backs from manufacturers and service industries. The disease of economic woe continues to spread.

We are on a very slippery slope with no brakes to slow down the fall, let alone stop it. Meanwhile, the band plays on and on.

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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There is a grand standing rush for our political leaders to act like they are doing something about the mortgage crisis. Much of what I have seen in the way of proposed legislation and initiatives fall far short in solving the problems. In fact, I see them causing more harm than good.

Our media and politicians are crying out for some type of home owner bailout. In fact, there are initiatives already under way. Massive amounts of taxpayer money are being earmarked for bailout funds and education/counseling.

This brings me to my question. Would the government do the same if these home owners were renters? Would they setup rent assistance funds and allot taxpayer money for the purpose of educating and counseling people who rent their dwellings?

A recent Market Watch article provided this characteristic of first time buyers…

But consider this: 45% of first-time buyers bought with no money down, and the median down payment of a first-time buyer was 2%.

Is there a difference between a home owner who has zero equity and never put any equity into a house and a renter who also has zero equity in their dwelling? From a personal balance sheet perspective, there isn’t. At least not to the net worth bottom line.

I don’t think there is a difference and that is why I question initiatives to assist this particular group of home owners in trouble. Lacking any differences, why do these people get special treatment over renters?

The government and media need to realize that not only is it impossible, but it is a waste of time and money to try to legislate…

• A minimal amount of financial sophistication
• Credit worthiness
• Personal responsibility
• A capability to meet credit obligations

While the focus of the media and politicians is on doing the impossible, the real problem goes unsolved thereby becoming more ominous with each passing day.

The mortgage and real estate industry cannot exist without a fine tuned and efficiently running mortgage securitization machine. The machine is broken and no one is doing anything about it. They aren’t even talking about it.

Until integrity, confidence and efficiency is restored to the mortgage securitization process, the crisis will continue grow. There no way the industry can survive without it and every effort must be made in order to save it. Every American’s economic well being depends on it.

Tags: Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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The mortgage and real estate meltdown is becoming apocalyptic in size and influence. An annihilation of the U.S. economy is a very real possibility. The pain is spreading globally as well. As bad as it is and it is very bad, the worst is yet to come. If you doubt me, just think about this. Congress has mobilized to “fix” the problem.

When faced with a dilemma as foreboding as this one, placing blame is a must. Even if you blame the wrong guy, that’s okay as you must blame someone; anyone. Of course this task accomplishes nothing and wastes valuable time and resources. None the less, it feels good and gives the appearance the problem is being dealt with.

True to form, our political leaders and the media have taken up the blame task. Congress and the media are well on their way to effectively dealing with the problem as they have designated their “bad guy”. It’s the mortgage broker.

Warning: There is very offensive language in the clip.
Say Goodnight to the Bad Guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pW2ZOBi01U

In an industry cast with many players, from the borrower to the investors buying mortgage paper, the political and media elite would have you believe the bad guy is one of the middle men in the industry. A middle man who is responsible for roughly half of all mortgage originations.

It matters not that this middle man has nothing to do with the flawed design of the products or their final disposition in some investment fund. The mortgage broker is the culprit. After all the media says so and Congress has them in their cross-hairs.

What is obvious to me is that Congress and the media is wrong, dead wrong. Sure brokers share some responsibility for the current economic dilemma. However it’s not to the extent the political and media elite would like you to believe. So let’s take a look at all of the players and try to determine who bears the most blame.

Here is the cast of players in the mortgage industry…

• The Borrowers
• The Originators (both brokers and lenders)
• The Lenders (in the roll of underwriting and pooling mortgages)
• The Investment Firms (responsible for converting mortgages into investment securities)
• The Investors
• The Ratings Agencies (responsible for rating the risk of securities)

How it all works…

Here is how the industry operates in a nutshell. Borrowers seek to borrow money, they contact an originator which can be a broker or lender. The originator will make a loan offering based upon the borrowers characteristics and the lenders guidelines or rules. The lender ultimately decides if the borrower gets the loan. The lender makes the rules that borrowers and originators must follow.

The lender’s rules or guidelines are based upon the requirements set forth by the investment firms. In order for lenders to operate efficiently, they must be able to sell their loans to investment firms to free up money to lend yet again.

Lenders do not lend if the investment firms aren’t buying the mortgage paper. In essence, final loan decisions by the lender are based upon the investment firm’s rules and guidelines. Yes lenders have a higher source to answer to.

The investment firms set their rules for buying the mortgage paper. They must assess the risk characteristics of the loans involved. They categorize and pool up the mortgages based upon the risk factors of the loans. After assessing and bundling up the mortgages, they sell the final investment vehicle to investors usually consisting of large institutions.

Investors rely on the ratings agencies to properly assess the risk elements of these mortgage securities. Additionally, both the institutional investors and selling investment firms alike, have risk management departments whose job it is to determine the risk aspects and suitability of the mortgage investments.

They are the watch dogs. Their job is too make sure the investments in question do not have excessive risk characteristics.

Fast forward to the mortgage meltdown of 2007

Due to an unprecedented number of loan defaults, investment firms are no longer buying any mortgages except those of the highest credit quality. The defaults are due to borrowers agreeing to mortgages with escalating payments they can no longer meet.

Lenders gave these loans to borrowers without the borrower having strong credit histories and in many cases, the proof of the capacity to repay the loan. The lenders also didn’t require that the borrower have capital at stake in these transactions. The lenders financed 100% of the purchases. All the while, the investment firms and ratings agencies were giving the lenders their blessings.

The end result of the loan defaults is a historic number of foreclosures pushing down the price of real estate to dangerous levels. Furthermore, now that investment firms aren’t buying but the best of paper, the lenders have drastically scaled back their loan offerings.

Borrowers needing to refinance out of mortgages they no longer can afford cannot do so because their home values are less than their loan balances and lenders are not offering the necessary products. This just causes the meltdown to get worse, in essence feeding upon itself.

Adding to the downward spiral is the fact many of these troublesome mortgages are yet to upwardly adjust their payments. Meaning there will be even more borrowers faced with not be able to afford their payments and ultimately defaulting. Of course these future defaults will lead to more decreases in the value of real estate and the personal wealth of millions of Americans.

With all of this unfolding, it is plain to see that without investment firms buying and trusting the integrity of mortgage securities, the mortgage industry doesn’t exist.

Unless the system of turning mortgages into investment securities is fixed, we are looking at years of financial and economic pain. Perhaps the total destruction of the American economy.

All right already, who is to blame?

The problem is that borrowers were given improper loans for their circumstances and are unable to repay these loans. Originators could not offer these loans unless lenders were willing to make them. Lenders would not make these loans unless investment firms were willing to buy them. The investment firms and their clients, the buyers of the investments, would not be involved with the mortgage investments unless the rating agencies and risk departments gave these mortgages their stamp of approval.

It’s rather plain to see who is not to take the most blame. That being the borrower, the broker and the lender. They are merely middle men operating according to rules that are ultimately set by the investment firms. The investment firms ultimately make decisions based upon the rating agencies and risk management departments.

That being so, the sleeping sentinels turn out to be the rating agencies and risk departments. Based on their erroneous stamp of approval, investment firms made seriously deficient decisions that effected every player in the industry including the consumer.

The mortgage securities causing all of the woes of today are exactly the same as they were two, three and four years ago. Now it’s come to light just how wrong these self policing entities were and we are just beginning to pay the price for their mistakes.

The bad guys are the rating agencies and the risk management departments.

Having a basic knowledge of the workings of the mortgage industry, it’s plain to see that the political and media elite are wrong in blaming the mortgage brokerage community for the current economic crisis.

Instead of directly addressing the most important and primary problem, which is mortgage securitization, Congress is focusing on the middleman, the broker. They stand ready to legislate more laws and regulations on an already overly regulated industry. The end result will be mortgage brokers going out of business leaving consumers with less choices and more expensive ones at that.

Meanwhile the mortgage securitization machine is broken and no one is paying attention. As long as the machine is broken, the mortgage and real estate industries cannot be repaired. The pain and the crisis will continue while our political, media and business elite are focused on minutia.

So say goodnight to this bad guy. There’s a bad guy coming through, you better get outta the way…

Tags: Current Events, Finance & Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate by The Mortgage Guy
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