Bailout! - Hillary’s Ineptitude and Political Pandering

Clinton advocates for socialistic policies that will destroy the mortgage industry and economy.If it makes for good press, you can bet your last dollar that politicians will jump on the band wagon. This is so even if what makes good press, is a disaster in disguise. Saving people’s homes from foreclosure is good press.

Having said this, does it come as a surprise that Hillary Clinton is joining the chorus for a socialistic mortgage bailout? If it does, it shouldn’t. The following is a 4 minute video of Clinton’s speech to Wall Street, brought to you by Marketwatch.

Hillary Clinton’s Financial Ineptitude Documented

Some of her statements are correct. For example, Wall Street’s role in the mortgage meltdown and that it will impact the broader economy. However, she goes downhill fast after that.

Here is where she is dead wrong with her most dangerous statements listed first.

  • Her threat to introduce legislation to disallow mortgage backed securities investors from suing. This will undoubtedly destroy mortgage securitization which is the backbone of the industry. Who will buy mortgage securities knowing that the government can change financial contracts on a whim and without the investors having any legal recourse? Is this even Constitutional?
  • The ninety day moratorium on foreclosures is nearly as dangerous. Perverting the foreclosure process will also prevent investors from buying mortgage paper. Further, by the their own admission, the bailout will only affect a very limited number homeowners. Yet she suggests a moratorium on ALL foreclosures.
  • What is to stop other homeowners from suing for better rates on their mortgages? It is discriminatory to freeze or lower some payments and not the payments of all homeowners. Who decides who gets what and under what circumstances?
  • She claims rate resets are responsible for the meltdown, yet it’s been pointed out that at least half of those in default today, are doing so on their initial low teaser rates. It’s also been pointed out that falling values play a significant role in the increase in defaults. When homeowners realize that they are massively upside down in value, they often choose to default on their loans.
  • Her assertion that mortgage brokers have a significant role in the mortgage meltdown is also a flawed position as I point out in this previous post.

The video is proof that Hillary Clinton, like George Bush, Henry Paulson, Barney Frank and Chuck Schumer, et al, are severely ill equipped to correct the mortgage and real estate meltdown. This becomes more evident each and every time these people open their mouths.

They are simply politicizing the issue without providing real solutions. Remember, their number one goal in life isn’t to help American homeowners, but to get elected and maintain or increase their power.

The freeze will only make the problem worse. Don’t drink the kool aid and prepare for some very rough times ahead. Times made even rougher with do nothing, feel good and very damaging initiatives.

Would The Government Bailout Renters?

Mortage and real estate meltdowns feed off each other.There is a grand standing rush for our political leaders to act like they are doing something about the mortgage crisis. Much of what I have seen in the way of proposed legislation and initiatives fall far short in solving the problems. In fact, I see them causing more harm than good.

Our media and politicians are crying out for some type of home owner bailout. In fact, there are initiatives already under way. Massive amounts of taxpayer money are being earmarked for bailout funds and education/counseling.

This brings me to my question. Would the government do the same if these home owners were renters? Would they setup rent assistance funds and allot taxpayer money for the purpose of educating and counseling people who rent their dwellings?

A recent Market Watch article provided this characteristic of first time buyers…

But consider this: 45% of first-time buyers bought with no money down, and the median down payment of a first-time buyer was 2%.

Is there a difference between a home owner who has zero equity and never put any equity into a house and a renter who also has zero equity in their dwelling? From a personal balance sheet perspective, there isn’t. At least not to the net worth bottom line.

I don’t think there is a difference and that is why I question initiatives to assist this particular group of home owners in trouble. Lacking any differences, why do these people get special treatment over renters?

The government and media need to realize that not only is it impossible, but it is a waste of time and money to try to legislate…

  • A minimal amount of financial sophistication
  • Credit worthiness
  • Personal responsibility
  • A capability to meet credit obligations

While the focus of the media and politicians is on doing the impossible, the real problem goes unsolved thereby becoming more ominous with each passing day.

The mortgage and real estate industry cannot exist without a fine tuned and efficiently running mortgage securitization machine. The machine is broken and no one is doing anything about it. They aren’t even talking about it.

Until integrity, confidence and efficiency is restored to the mortgage securitization process, the crisis will continue grow. There no way the industry can survive without it and every effort must be made in order to save it. Every American’s economic well being depends on it.

Say Goodnight to The Bad Guy

The Coming Economic MeltdownThe mortgage and real estate meltdown is becoming apocalyptic in size and influence. An annihilation of the U.S. economy is a very real possibility. The pain is spreading globally as well. As bad as it is and it is very bad, the worst is yet to come. If you doubt me, just think about this. Congress has mobilized to “fix” the problem.

When faced with a dilemma as foreboding as this one, placing blame is a must. Even if you blame the wrong guy, that’s okay as you must blame someone; anyone. Of course this task accomplishes nothing and wastes valuable time and resources. None the less, it feels good and gives the appearance the problem is being dealt with.

True to form, our political leaders and the media have taken up the blame task. Congress and the media are well on their way to effectively dealing with the problem as they have designated their “bad guy”. It’s the mortgage broker.

Warning: There is very offensive language in the clip.
Say Goodnight to the Bad Guy

In an industry cast with many players, from the borrower to the investors buying mortgage paper, the political and media elite would have you believe the bad guy is one of the middle men in the industry. A middle man who is responsible for roughly half of all mortgage originations.

It matters not that this middle man has nothing to do with the flawed design of the products or their final disposition in some investment fund. The mortgage broker is the culprit. After all the media says so and Congress has them in their cross-hairs.

What is obvious to me is that Congress and the media is wrong, dead wrong. Sure brokers share some responsibility for the current economic dilemma. However it’s not to the extent the political and media elite would like you to believe. So let’s take a look at all of the players and try to determine who bears the most blame.

Here is the cast of players in the mortgage industry…

  • The Borrowers
  • The Originators (both brokers and lenders)
  • The Lenders (in the roll of underwriting and pooling mortgages)
  • The Investment Firms (responsible for converting mortgages into investment securities)
  • The Investors
  • The Ratings Agencies (responsible for rating the risk of securities)

How it all works…

Here is how the industry operates in a nutshell. Borrowers seek to borrow money, they contact an originator which can be a broker or lender. The originator will make a loan offering based upon the borrowers characteristics and the lenders guidelines or rules. The lender ultimately decides if the borrower gets the loan. The lender makes the rules that borrowers and originators must follow.

How the mortgage industry worksThe lender’s rules or guidelines are based upon the requirements set forth by the investment firms. In order for lenders to operate efficiently, they must be able to sell their loans to investment firms to free up money to lend yet again.

Lenders do not lend if the investment firms aren’t buying the mortgage paper. In essence, final loan decisions by the lender are based upon the investment firm’s rules and guidelines. Yes lenders have a higher source to answer to.

The investment firms set their rules for buying the mortgage paper. They must assess the risk characteristics of the loans involved. They categorize and pool up the mortgages based upon the risk factors of the loans. After assessing and bundling up the mortgages, they sell the final investment vehicle to investors usually consisting of large institutions.

Investors rely on the ratings agencies to properly assess the risk elements of these mortgage securities. Additionally, both the institutional investors and selling investment firms alike, have risk management departments whose job it is to determine the risk aspects and suitability of the mortgage investments.

They are the watch dogs. Their job is too make sure the investments in question do not have excessive risk characteristics.

Fast forward to the mortgage meltdown of 2007

Mortgage defaults continue to rise.Due to an unprecedented number of loan defaults, investment firms are no longer buying any mortgages except those of the highest credit quality. The defaults are due to borrowers agreeing to mortgages with escalating payments they can no longer meet.

Lenders gave these loans to borrowers without the borrower having strong credit histories and in many cases, the proof of the capacity to repay the loan. The lenders also didn’t require that the borrower have capital at stake in these transactions. The lenders financed 100% of the purchases. All the while, the investment firms and ratings agencies were giving the lenders their blessings.

The end result of the loan defaults is a historic number of foreclosures pushing down the price of real estate to dangerous levels. Furthermore, now that investment firms aren’t buying but the best of paper, the lenders have drastically scaled back their loan offerings.

Borrowers needing to refinance out of mortgages they no longer can afford cannot do so because their home values are less than their loan balances and lenders are not offering the necessary products. This just causes the meltdown to get worse, in essence feeding upon itself.

Adding to the downward spiral is the fact many of these troublesome mortgages are yet to upwardly adjust their payments. Meaning there will be even more borrowers faced with not be able to afford their payments and ultimately defaulting. Of course these future defaults will lead to more decreases in the value of real estate and the personal wealth of millions of Americans.

With all of this unfolding, it is plain to see that without investment firms buying and trusting the integrity of mortgage securities, the mortgage industry doesn’t exist.

Unless the system of turning mortgages into investment securities is fixed, we are looking at years of financial and economic pain. Perhaps the total destruction of the American economy.

All right already, who is to blame?

Credit Rating Agencies are to blame for the mortgage and real estate meltdown.The problem is that borrowers were given improper loans for their circumstances and are unable to repay these loans. Originators could not offer these loans unless lenders were willing to make them. Lenders would not make these loans unless investment firms were willing to buy them. The investment firms and their clients, the buyers of the investments, would not be involved with the mortgage investments unless the rating agencies and risk departments gave these mortgages their stamp of approval.

It’s rather plain to see who is not to take the most blame. That being the borrower, the broker and the lender. They are merely middle men operating according to rules that are ultimately set by the investment firms. The investment firms ultimately make decisions based upon the rating agencies and risk management departments.

That being so, the sleeping sentinels turn out to be the rating agencies and risk departments. Based on their erroneous stamp of approval, investment firms made seriously deficient decisions that effected every player in the industry including the consumer.

The mortgage securities causing all of the woes of today are exactly the same as they were two, three and four years ago. Now it’s come to light just how wrong these self policing entities were and we are just beginning to pay the price for their mistakes.

The bad guys are the rating agencies and the risk management departments.

The rating agencies is the bad guy of the mortgage meltdown crisis.Having a basic knowledge of the workings of the mortgage industry, it’s plain to see that the political and media elite are wrong in blaming the mortgage brokerage community for the current economic crisis.

Instead of directly addressing the most important and primary problem, which is mortgage securitization, Congress is focusing on the middleman, the broker. They stand ready to legislate more laws and regulations on an already overly regulated industry. The end result will be mortgage brokers going out of business leaving consumers with less choices and more expensive ones at that.

Meanwhile the mortgage securitization machine is broken and no one is paying attention. As long as the machine is broken, the mortgage and real estate industries cannot be repaired. The pain and the crisis will continue while our political, media and business elite are focused on minutia.

So say goodnight to this bad guy. There’s a bad guy coming through, you better get outta the way…

Barney Frank Set to Throw Gas on Mortgage Meltdown Fire

U.S. Representative Barney Frank (D-Mass) is proposing legislation that will decimate the mortgage industry. If he is successful, it will no doubt negatively impact millions of Americans who own homes and who plan on buying homes. The public will see their mortgage choices cut in half, if not more, and has the potential of exacerbating the current mortgage and real estate crisis. Consider the excerpt from an October 29th bizjournals article

The bill, introduced by House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, would require all mortgage originators to be licensed. It also would require lenders to determine that borrowers have a reasonable chance to repay the loan and ban incentives for mortgage originators to make certain types of loans.

First let me address the obvious. Originators and mortgage companies are already required to be licensed. They are required by the states that they operate in. Requiring Federal licensing will only add another layer of red tape to an industry already plagued with it.

He then wants mortgage companies to ensure a borrowers ability to repay a given loan. Only God can do that. There is no way any money making entity would take the risk of originating loans if they can be called to the carpet for not foreseeing a borrower not being able to repay. Yet that is what Barney Frank is requiring of mortgage companies.

The incentives he wants to ban are an integral part of mortgage pricing. The incentives he speaks of is called Yield Spread Premium in the mortgage industry. Originators get paid for providing a mortgage through front end fees or points and yield spread premium. Sometimes it’s one or the other and sometimes compensation comes from a combination of both.

Yield spread premiums provide compensation to the originator in exchange for delivering a mortgage with a rate that is higher than the “par” rate on any given day. The par rate is the rate that the originator can offer without yield spread premium being paid or without cost to the originator and or borrower.

It is through yield spread premium that no point and no cost mortgages are offered. When a lending institution offers a no point loan, they aren’t doing it for free. Someone is paying and that someone is the secondary market. The consumer benefits because they are able to get a loan without having to pay points. Eliminating yield spread premium would eliminate no point and no cost mortgages. How can this benefit the consumer?

The American Bankers Association also is concerned the bill would increase the regulatory burden for banks and restrict their “ability to provide products and services — all of which would increase costs and decrease choices for consumers,” said Floyd Stoner, the association’s executive director of congressional relations and public policy.

The National Association of Mortgage Brokers contended consumers would be hurt by the legislation’s elimination of the yield spread premium, a rebate paid to brokers if borrowers accept a higher interest rate in return for lower fees on the loan.

It is interesting to note that none of the measures in Frank’s legislation would have headed off the current mortgage crisis. However it is plain for everyone to see that the current crisis sets a nice stage for his grand standing.

Not only would his legislation not prevent the crisis, it will make the current crisis more painful and has the potential of thrusting this country into a 1930’s style depression by drying up liquidity in the mortgage market. This will lead to fewer homes being sold and more homes going into foreclosure. All of which will continue the steep downward spiral of housing prices.

Let’s remember one thing about politicians. Their number one goal is not help anyone in particular, but to get re-elected. Many are re-elected on ideas that sound good but are harmful in reality. This is one of those instances.