New Jumbo Conforming Loan Limits for Connecticut

The long awaited details on the expanded loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now becoming available. Here is the latest information we have on the new jumbo loan guidelines for counties located in Connecticut.

While the limits have been approved and the matrices released, FNMA’s Desktop Underwriter (DU) and Freddie Mac’s Loan Prospector (LP) do not reflect these changes or offer pricing for these loans. We expect those details to follow shortly. DU and LP are the computer underwriting models used to determine borrower eligibility.

New Conforming Loan Limits for Connecticut

County 1 Unit Limit 2 Unit Limit
Fairfield $708,750 $907,350
Hartford $440,000 $563,250
Litchfield $417.000 $533,850
Middlesex

$440,000 $563,250
New Haven

$417,000 $533,850
New London $417,000 $533,850
Tolland $440,000 $563,250
Windham $417,000 $533,850
For all other U.S. Counties and three and four unit limits, please see FNMA’s Spreadsheet

Here you can find the FNMA Jumbo Mortgage Matrix

And

Here is Freddie Mac’s Jumbo Loan Matrix

We will post any developments with regard to these new limits as they become available.

Have We Seen the Best of Mortgage Rates… Of Times?

I think we may have seen the best of mortgage interest rates for the foreseeable future. It’s very possible that we have already visited this year’s lows on fixed rate mortgages. Keep in mind of late, the foreseeable future is about as far away as tomorrow.

Normally in a recession, mortgage rates respond to the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate. This time around, it’s very different. Instead of mortgage rates dropping with the Fed lowering the target rate, mortgage rates are going the other way.

There are reasons behind this anomaly. First of all, mortgage rates never mirror the fed funds’ rate moves. However for the past fifteen years, fixed rates more often than not, moved in the same general direction as the fed funds rate. Presently the rates are going in opposite directions. This by the way, is telling us a lot about the economy.

One reason long term mortgage rates are moving upward is because inflation is raging out of control. It doesn’t matter what the government numbers say, everything is more expensive and some commodities have have skyrocketed in price and I’m not just referring to oil. Long term rates have a history of going up in response to inflation because inflation directly erodes the value of long term debt. In essence, the higher rate is supposed to offset the ravages of inflation.

The dollar’s weakness is also adding to the inflation picture. The dollar buys less of everything we import, which is more fuel for the inflation fire that long term mortgage rates are responding to. Keep in mind, in order to strengthen the dollar, long terms rates would have to go up from their current level or foreign currencies would have to weaken.

That could happen, perhaps due to the recessionary environment spreading globally or some other reason. However, there is little reason to think foreign economies won’t deteriorate because they too are affected by the credit crisis and the implosion of the largest economy on the face of the earth.

The U.S. credit markets are broken. The mortgage debt markets are at the vanguard of the market’s destruction, malfunctioning and ongoing deterioration. Hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgage debt value has evaporated into thin air. Mortgage paper (debt securities) is toxic and no one wants to buy it. This is reflected in the trend and level of current mortgage rates.

Not only are mortgage rates struggling against a steepening yield curve, they are also fighting additional risk of default primarily due to irresponsible underwriting and historic declines in real estate values. Consequently mortgage securities are responding to the additional risk of default with higher interest rates.

Adding to the forces pushing mortgage rates up, the United States banking is system is essentially insolvent. Banks are borrowing heavily from the Federal Reserve to meet their required capital reserve levels. In an attempt to shore up their balance sheets, the banks are dumping mortgage backed securities at fire sale prices. The lower mortgage backed securities prices brings with it higher mortgage interest rates. This price/interest rate pressure would play out even if inflation weren’t a factor, which it clearly is.

Banks have yet to even quantify how much mortgage backed debt they own or the value of it. I don’t know how they do it, but the toxic debt securities are being kept off their balance sheets. Even more discouraging is the regulators know it and don’t seem to care. Right or wrong, perhaps the regulators understand the fragility of our banking system and don’t want to break it by enforcing rules.

I have every reason to believe the conditions causing mortgage interest rates to rise, will only get worse for the foreseeable future. Therefore it is my view that at best, the mortgage rate trend will be flat to higher from this point on. This trend will continue until the credit markets regain their integrity. Unfortunately there is no sign that will happen. The Federal Reserve’s main weapon is influence over short term interest rates. It has nothing in it’s arsenal to fix the systemic problems of the debt markets.

The same holds true for the Federal government’s fiscal policy measures aimed at the crisis. Their use of the tax rebate checks, even for people who didn’t pay taxes, is fighting the last economic war. It won’t work in the “new” economy. Dropping checks from helicopters won’t fix the debt markets. At best that will fuel inflation, thus putting more pressure on long term interest rates which in turn will further exacerbate economic woe.

The heart of the crisis is the broken debt markets. Credit is the oil of the modern economy. There is no way any economy can function without ample credit being available. Lenders are not lending, credit is drying up. Right now the economy’s oil (credit) level is dangerously low and falling. This will lead to the economic engine seizing up completely unless something puts the oil/credit back in. That “something” is not apparent to anyone.

In fact, the entire crisis crept up on everyone responsible for avoiding one, ahem. Yet a regular guy working on Main Street, USA, saw this coming nine months ago. It’s just within days that I am hearing admission as to just how bad things really are and are going to get. What is even more disconcerting, is what is just coming to light now, is the tip of the iceberg. We aren’t but two months into what will most likely be a multi year economic downturn.

Not in my lifetime or my thirty years in the financial industry, have I seen a more dangerous economic environment. There is a real possibility that we are facing something on the scale of the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Which is why I asked, “are the best of mortgage rates as well as the best of times behind us”?

Credit Bureaus “Release the Hounds” on Mortgage Applicants

Credit bureaus release the hounds when your credit report is pulled.The credit bureaus, Trans Union, Experian and Equifax, sell a certain kind of data called trigger data. When a borrower applies for a mortgage, a credit report is ordered for the sake of qualifying and underwriting the loan. Naturally, your credit report request is directed to the credit bureaus who notate all of the people who are having their credit pulled for the sake of getting a mortgage.

What the bureaus do with this refined data, is sell it to mortgage origination companies or middlemen in the consumer data arena. Here is a sales pitch for such data from mortgage triggers dot com.


FAQ Answers

Where do triggers come from?
A: Trigger Leads come directly to us from the three major credit bureaus. A mortgage trigger is simply a credit bureau derived lead based on live credit attributes triggered by the actual credit behavior of your prospect. It is highly specialized and targeted for individual client.

Can I specify the lead parameters?
A: Yes. You can select the FICO scores, mortgage amounts, LTV ratios, geography, and revolving debt balances that make up your ideal candidate. When they apply for a mortgage, we send you the borrower’s information within 24 hours.

How is a mortgage trigger lead generated?

A: Once you have established your ideal criteria the bureau creates a “watch” list of all homeowners that fit the exact criteria you desire. When they have a mortgage inquiry which is generated when their credit is pulled, we send you the lead.

If you have ever applied for a mortgage and wondered why you are getting scores of mortgage offers over the telephone, via mail or email, it is probably due to the credit bureaus selling your trigger data to whomever wants it (the releasing of the hounds). I don’t know about you, I’m in the mortgage origination business and I find this tactic disturbing from a consumer point of view. I also don’t like it from the origination perspective either.

I have no problem with the bureaus providing my credit information to prospective lenders. That is their function. However, it is a different story when the bureaus take note of my credit actions, such as having a credit report pulled for the sake of getting a loan, and then selling my activity as opposed to my credit history. This is why I feel this is an invasion of privacy.

Apparently I’m not the only one who doesn’t like it. Consider this snippet from a realtytimes.com article.

Home mortgage lenders themselves are angry about the new hot leads programs. Dan Hughes, a loan officer for Summit Mortgage Corp. in Edina, Minn., told Realty Times that “as a traditional loan officer who gets most of my business from referrals from Realtors and past customers, I take a dim view of anyone who buys leads from any source” — but worst of all from “overnight” data purveyors “who are feeding off my own clients’ personal information.”

Pat Barney, another Summit Mortgage loan officer, recalls recently applying for a home equity credit line from a large New York-based bank. Within a day or two, he got a call from a competing lender trying to persuade him to cancel his application with the New York bank and switch to her company. A day later, he got another call, this time from a lender who claimed that “I’ve been notified by your lender that you’re looking for a home equity line.”

Note the deception in the sales pitch. It’s not uncommon for this particular type of data. I mean what is the sales person supposed to say when the truth is the sales organization is so desperate for business that it pays to be notified whenever someone is applying for a mortgage with another company. Heck if we can’t originate loans by the virtue of our reputation and marketing savvy, we’ll try to steal the business from companies that enjoy these qualities.

This type of sales lead plays on consumer greed. After all of the preliminary hard work has been completed, the mortgage trigger lead buying companies then inundate the consumer with counter offers that are based on pure speculation. The incentive for leaving the initial company contacted is invariably a promise of a lower price. Whether it be a lower rate or closing costs or both.

While the trigger lead buying company has some credit information about you, perhaps your credit score range and amount of revolving, installment and mortgage debt you carry, the lead buying company in no way has enough information to determine you qualify for a lower rate or closing costs.

Instead the process of fact finding and providing solutions therein, need to start all over again. Your credit will need to be re-pulled, which may result in a lower score than initially pulled. However, the biggest issue is time, as the process is started all over again.

In the current lending environment, this could lead to losing a locked rate that is no longer available, possibly a lower appraised value on the home or degraded loan terms due to tightening credit requirements. All this for the promise of a rate that is reduced .25%. A promise and not a guarantee.

There is good news though. You can prevent the hounds from being released in the first place,as you have the right of “opting out” with the credit bureaus. By filling out a simple online form, you can save yourself the aggravation of being a consumer punching bag for up to five years. To be removed from opt in offers, go to OptOutPrescreen dot com. In addition to the online opt out form, you will also have the option of submitting a written request that will remove you from opt in offers permanently.

Don’t you just love the assumption that if you haven’t opted out, then you’ve opted in. Not too many businesses can get away with such tactics. If you would like to voice your opinion on trigger data, you can write the FTC or Federal Trade Commission, as they are the regulatory entity for the credit bureaus.

Obama on Mortgage Crisis, Hypocrite or Ignorant You Decide

In December of last year, I posted on Hillary Clinton’s views of the mortgage meltdown. So it was with great interest that I read Moe’s post on Barack Obama and the mortgage crisis. In fact, I liked it so much that I asked permission to cross post it here.

Moe runs the blog Loan Modification & Home Loan News, which is dedicated to assisting homeowners facing the mortgage crisis. If you are facing a mortgage or foreclosure problem, it would do you some good to check out his blog. He has already helped 19 homeowners save their homes. For that I tip my hat and also thank him for allowing me to cross post his article.

My take on the article is that Moe is right on. This article exposes Obama as being part of the same old problem in Washington. Which in a nutshell is money over people. So not only is Obama a hypocrite with respect to the mortgage crisis, he is one based on his campaign theme of “change”. What Moe’s post exposes isn’t change at all. Rather it’s the same old, same old. Obama is either ignorant of where his money is coming from or a hypocrite, you decide. Either way, these are not qualities that endear me to any Presidential candidate.

The last thing this country needs, in these very critical times, is more political cronyism. This is true even if the favoritism is wrapped in the word “change”.

Is Obama for the People or the Banks?


By Moe on March 2nd, 2008

Let’s get something straight here America.

The President of the United States is to work for the common good of the people for which they represent and serve. Yes, represent and serve. They do not take the oval office to work for the “special interests” of corporate America and the money that fills their campaign buckets.

Or do they?

I have been watching Barrack Obama for quite sometime and what I have seen, has been nothing short of disappointing. Obama has been mostly silent in regards to his policy on the mortgage and housing crisis. He has done little to address the millions of Americans that are “suffering” as a result of these loans they were sold by irresponsible lenders.

I came across this interesting article in the Huffington Post by Earl Ofari Hutchinson. Here are some quotes that I thought I would share with my readers. Since they need to know what candidates truly have their backs. Meaning, which candidate is truly here for the people which they represent and the millions of homeowners that were swindled by the banks.

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama says he’ll crack down on fraudulent sub-prime lenders. If he really means it he can start by firing his campaign finance chair, Penny Pritzker. Before taking over Obama’s campaign finances, she headed up the borderline shady and failed Superior Bank. It collapsed in 2002. The bank’s sordid story and its abominable role in fueling the sub-prime crisis are well known and documented. It engaged in deceptive and faulty lending, questionable accounting practices, and charged hidden fees. It did it with the sleepy-eyed see-no-evil oversight of federal. It made thousands of dubious loans to mostly poor, strapped homeowners. A disproportionate number of them were minority.

I am not really familiar with this Penny Pritzker. So, I thought I would do a Google search and this is what I found. This is from wikipedia.

On February 20, 2008, Flashpoints Radioproduced an investigative report segment into how Penny Pritzker’s possible role in the current predatory lending(aka. sub-prime) crisis. According to investigative reporter Tim Anderson, Superior Bank, FSB of Hinsdale, Illinois, was owned by the Pritzker family until closed by the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. Superior Bank was among the original lending institutions who used their investors money to purchase “subprime” mortgages for securitization. Pritzker banking resources working with Ernst & Young and Merrill Lynch developed the original mortgage securitation package, putting mortgages into a bond and then selling the bond. Like many banks nationwide, the decision to participate and underwrite subprime business ultimately proved fatal for their mortgage division.

Here is the podcast that I feel everyone should listen to from Flashpoints Radio.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008 Listen D’load Podcast - Today on Flashpoints: Today on Flashpoints, An investigative report into Penny Pritzker, the 2008 campaign finance chairman for Barack Obama, who was a key mover and shaker in creating the sub-prime meltdown;

It doesn’t end there and keep in mind, this is all as easy as doing a 30 second Google search. This is a November 8, 2002 article is from Inside These Times:

After federal regulators closed the $2.3 billion Superior Bank in July 2001, investigations revealed that the suburban Chicago thrift was tainted with the hallmarks of a mini-Enron scandal. New legal developments are adding additional twists, including racketeering charges. And yet the bank’s owners, members if one of America’s wealthiest families, ultimately could end up profiting from the bank’s collapse, while many of Superior’s borrowers and depositors suffer financial losses.

The Superior story has a familiar ring. Using a variety of shell companies and complex financial gimmicks, Superior’s managers and owners exaggerated the profits and financial soundness of the bank. While the company actually lost money throughout most of the ’90s, publicly it appeared to be growing remarkably fast and making unusually large profits. Under that cover, the floundering enterprise paid its owners huge dividends and provided them favorable loans and other financial deals deemed illegal by federal investigators.

Wanting to avoid a lawsuit, the secretive Pritzkers quickly agreed to what the FDIC hailed in December as the biggest settlement they had ever negotiated. The Pritzkers would pay $100 million immediately, then $360 million over 15 years. But there were lots of little provisions in the agreement that benefit the Pritzkers. First, as former bank consultant and longtime thrift watchdog Tim Anderson notes, the $100 million doesn’t even quite pay back all of the unpaid loans made to the owners. The Pritzkers also pay no interest on the $360 million, and since it is paid over many years, the real cost to the Pritzkers may be only around $250 million. As of September 2002, according to FDIC figures, the insurance fund was still out $440 million after this settlement.

But it gets even sweeter for the Pritzkers. The FDIC also agreed to pay the Pritzkers 25 percent of any claim won in a lawsuit against Ernst & Young. Since the FDIC is now suing for $548 million, the Pritzker share could be $137 million. On top of that, the agreement stated that the Pritzkers get half of any civil penalties from such a lawsuit (after certain agency expenses). The FDIC is asking for triple damages, or $1.64 billion; the Pritzker share could be over $800 million.

Even taking into account the “record” settlement they made with the FDIC, the Pritzkers could make more than $700 million in additional profit for running a financial institution into the ground. They had already profited handsomely, sharing in the more than $200 million in dividends to the owners in the ’90s. They accomplished all this with an investment of about $21 million for each partner—though the Pritzkers had also already benefited from $645 million in tax credits.

Meanwhile, roughly 1,000 depositors who had deposits above $100,000 in a Superior account—money above the FDIC-insured limit—lost about $65 million. Most of them were middle-class individuals, attracted by Superior’s high interest rates.

Here is the failed Superior Bank information from the FDIC

So, what does all this tell the American people? The suffering American homeowner that is struggling in one of the very same loans that Penny Pritzker used to pedal at her “Superior Swindle of a Bank”?

How can Barack Obama say you have a splinter in your eye when there is a log in his?

Personally to me, it shows that Mr. Obama is all about the Benjamin’s (AKA Money) and speeches with his big white toothed grin and hollow words that seem to have Americans under his spell and hanging on to his every word as his pockets are lined by the very sharks that feed off of suffering Americans.

Isn’t Obama supposed to protect the people against these corporations or is he to align himself with them to win an election? Hell, it seems like it doesn’t matter where that money came from to fund his campaign. As long as it serves his purpose and this purpose seems to be rearing its ugly head in the form of campaign contributions from the very same people that he criticises.

You are contradicting yourself Obama. Why don’t you read exactly what this means and I’ll help you by posting the wikipedia version of the term “contradiction.”

In logic, a contradiction consists of a logical incompatibility between two or more propositions. It occurs when the propositions, taken together, yield two conclusions which form the logical inversions of each other. Illustrating a general tendency in applied logic, Aristotle’s law of noncontradiction states that “One cannot say of something that it is and that it is not in the same respect and at the same time.”

More from Inside These Times:

Ernst & Young provided inaccurate audits, resisted regulators, and did not test or properly disclose crucial financial assumptions. The OTS didn’t investigate or follow up on problems adequately, ignored warning signs for years, and unduly relied on the expertise of managers, the auditor’s report, and the promise of the wealthy owners to put their money behind the bank’s strategy, which they ultimately refused to do. While the FDIC lawsuit against Ernst & Young correctly highlights the accounting firm’s sorry record of accounting malpractice, it ignores the dubious history of the Pritzkers and Dworman in cases ranging from tax evasion to bank mismanagement, instead praising the Pritzkers for their charity.

What looked like a good deal for the FDIC in resolving Superior’s failure is now looking like yet another opportunity for the wealthy Pritzkers to further profit from their misdeeds. Certainly, the record suggests that Ernst & Young bears responsibility, but so do the Pritzkers and Dworman. The question is not just who will extract money from whose pocket in the aftermath of the bank failure, but also whether the rich are simply above the law. The RICO lawsuit against bank managers, owners and auditors raises the issue of criminal conspiracy and at least attempts to recover damages for the uninsured depositors. But beyond that, argues thrift watchdog Anderson, “I think there ought to be a criminal investigation.”

More wise words from Earl Ofari Hutchinson from the Huffington Post:

Obama boosters will try to muddy the water by fingering Pritzker’s brother, Jay Robert Pritzker, who heads up a campaign committee for Hillary Clinton. That’s irrelevant. Jay Robert did not head up Superior Bank when it ran roughshod over homeowners in Illinois and nationally. He does not head up Clinton’s campaign finance committee. The campaign committee he started is one of dozens of Clinton campaign committees that operate in many states.

Obama’s message is one of hope and especially change. He can prove it by changing his finance chair, and doing it now. And then telling the public what he will do to stop bank’s like the one his financial point person headed from bleeding needy and desperate home buyers dry.

The predictable happened when many of those lost their homes. When the bank collapsed Pritzker and bank officials skipped away with their profits and reputations intact. Aside from the financial and personal misery sub prime lenders caused the thousands of distressed homeowners, sub-prime lending has been a major cause of the housing crisis in many areas, and has dealt a sledgehammer blow to the economy. Obama has said nothing about Pritzker, Superior Bank, or their dubious practices.

Instead, there was a touching, even teary eyed photo op, moment during one of Obama’s Texas campaign swings. There was Obama talking to a group of San Antonio residents and lambasting the CEO of a sub-prime lender for greedily snatching at a $100 million buy out package while thousands of home borrowers that his company snookered into loans at below market rates faced foreclosure or the threat of foreclosure.

So let me get this straight Obama. You can berate a CEO like Angelo Mozilo (I assume that is who you are speaking of) for taking profits as a result of snookering the American people. But when it comes to accepting money for your campaign, it is quite all right to take money from a woman who snookered American Homeowners and was made rich off the backs of people for which she made toxic loans to.

Excuse me Barack Obama, Penny Pritzker is guilty of the very same thing for which you had a lambasting fest in San Antonio. Now, lets see if main stream media is also under Obama’s goofy grinned spell and if they will pick up this very important information that the American people “need” to know.

Fed Cuts Rate and Mortgage Rates Rise!

The markets can be puzzling at times.Since the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate by .50% on January 30, mortgage rates are up at least .75% on the thirty year fixed rate mortgage. For example, our 30 year fixed rate, no closing cost loan offering bottomed out at 5.75% APR just before Bernanke and the Fed lowered the fed funds rate by .50%.

Today our no closing cost rate stands at 6.50% APR. That is a three quarter percent increase despite the fed funds rate being cut by one half of one percent. Rates have responded similarly in other fixed rate maturities as well.

Public perception is that if the Fed lowers rates, mortgage rates will follow. Sometimes that is true, other times it is not. Quite often, those of us in the mortgage origination business,
cringe when the Fed lowers their short term rate. More often than not, we need to re-educate borrowers on the workings of the debt markets and interest rates in general. These re-education efforts are necessary due to the bombardment of misinformation the public receives through advertising and/or simply ignorance.

The actual rate that gets the most publicity, when the Fed addresses monetary policy, is the Federal Funds rate. Here is how the Federal Reserve describes the Federal Funds rate on their New York Fed website. Emphasis is mine.

By trading government securities, the New York Fed affects the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee establishes the target rate for trading in the federal funds market.

The most important thing to take away from this definition, is that it is a very short term interest rate. You cannot get more short term than overnight. This is the rate that is most commonly used by the Federal Reserve to manipulate monetary policy. The Federal Reserve does not control mortgage interest rates. They really don’t directly control the fed funds rate either, rather they set a target rate.

Mortgage rates move independently of short term rates and it is short term rates that the Fed has the most control over. Just because the Federal Reserve moves rates one way or the other, doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates are moving in the same direction. The rate activity, over the past three weeks, proves this point.

In this environment, if you are presented with a good and sensible rate for your situation, don’t jeopardize it by waiting for Federal Reserve actions. You can easily lose this bet two ways. You may guess wrong on the direction in which the Fed is moving short term rates and it may be erroneous to assume that long term mortgage rates will respond by moving in the same direction.

One thing is for certain. Mortgage rates and the very short term fed funds rate, never move the same amount in either direction. To clarify, if the fed cuts or raises by say 1/2%, mortgage rates do not move by the same 1/2%. If they do, it’s rare and purely coincidental. In the world of financial instruments, they are two very different animals. The erroneous assumption of lock step interest rate movement is one I have heard many, many times.

All Loans Harder to Qualify for as Credit Standards Tighten At Record Pace

U.S. Credit SqueezeFor a while now the Mortgage Guy has been posting that our product shelf is about 20% of what it used to be. Further we’ve stated that underwriting requirements (credit standards) have been tightening on all types of mortgages and that this trend was spreading to credit cards and consumer debt. The Fed released a survey yesterday that documents these very disturbing trends.

Banks are raising their credit standards for mortgages, consumer loans and commercial real estate loans at a pace never seen in the 17-year history of the Fed’s quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, the Fed said.

Plain-vanilla business loans were also much harder to obtain, the Fed said. Banks expect more delinquencies and charge offs for most types of loans to consumers and businesses, the survey said. Banks said they were tightening their lending standards in response to weaker economy, reduced tolerance of risk, and decreased liquidity in secondary markets.

Consequently, we’ve been urging our clients, both current and prospective, not to delay any financing activity that they have been contemplating. Such as refinancing to make budgets more manageable for the rough times ahead.

One of the biggest reasons for the current procrastination on borrower’s parts, is the prospect for even lower interest rates in the future. We feel this could be a trap. By waiting for lower rates, home values continue to decline and credit standards continue to tightened dramatically.

Any potential gain from lower interest rates can be more than offset by falling home values and tighter credit policies. Waiting for lower rates not only can make refinancing more expensive, it may make it impossible.

This is also from the Fed survey…

For consumers, banks are tightening up on all types of mortgages, not just subprime loans. And banks are less willing to approve consumer installment loans.

More than 80% of banks - the largest percentage ever — said they had tightened lending standards for commercial real estate loans in response to a weaker economy. Nearly 60% of the banks reported falling demand for commercial real estate loans, and 87% expect the quality of such loans already made to worsen.

Clearly the United States is entering a very severe and equally dangerous credit crunch. It started in subprime mortgages and spread to all types of mortgages and now it’s spreading to installment loans and credit cards. Credit card issuers have tightened their standards just like the mortgage lenders as evidenced by this article in the Wall Street Journal.

Big card issuers such as Citigroup Inc. are requiring higher credit scores before issuing new cards, particularly in states that have been hit hard by the housing downturn, including California, Arizona and Florida. Some lenders, including Bank of America Corp., are offering lower initial credit lines. Other lenders, such as Capital One Financial Corp., are limiting credit-line increases or reducing credit lines for existing customers if they see signs that they are suddenly applying for more credit or are having trouble paying down their balances. And many card issuers are raising late fees and other charges to help offset what they see as higher risk.

Also from the article, this synopsis of various credit card lender initiatives.

Various lenders tighten credit.

Naturally, for an economy that is already reaching recessionary levels, these developments prove to be quite serious. John Mauldin at Minyanville states the following about recessions and depressions.

I have long contended that a recession is a normal part of the business cycle, but it takes a major policy mistake by a government or central bank to create a depression.

The Mortgage Guy has maintained that this recession is due to systemic causes rather than cyclical causes. In our view this recession is being brought on by debt markets that are not functioning properly or at all.

We have criticized the Fed, the Treasury Department and politicians for focusing on monetary policy and stimulus packages as opposed to focusing on the dysfunctional credit markets. Lenders, at this point in time, cannot effectively securitize the loans they are originating thus they are cutting back and refusing to lend.

Monetary policy won’t work in this environment because with failing debt markets and banks refusing to lend, there is no way to get the cheap money that a loose monetary policy provides, to the people who need it most.

Could this be the “major policy mistake” that morphs this recession into a depression? We think it could be and history is our guide. Consider this snippet from Wiki on the Great Depression.

In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, banks became more conservative in lending money. They built up their capital reserves, which intensified the deflationary pressures. The vicious cycle developed, and the downward spiral accelerated. This kind of self-aggravating process may have turned a 1930 recession into a 1933 depression.

These parallels are much too close for comfort. What is even more disturbing, is that as I write this today, there is still a lack of attention to our malfunctioning credit markets. All of the initiatives put forth so far by Congress, the Fed and Treasury Department all focus elsewhere and we think this is a major mistake. Perhaps the mistake that transforms the current recession into a future depression.

We have a lot of rough sledding ahead. Will you be prepared or will you become a victim? Now is the time to take a hard look at your financial situation and to make adjustments accordingly. Your financial alternatives are shrinking everyday.

Just because you might be the proverbial AAA rated borrower, doesn’t mean you won’t be affected by this credit squeeze. I’ll close this post with how the Fed Survey illustrates this tightening of credit standards affects all borrowers.

More than half of the banks tightened their standards for prime mortgages, by far the highest percentage in the 17-year history of the survey. Seventy percent expected the quality of prime mortgages to worsen.

More than 80% of the banks tightened their standards for nontraditional loans, including jumbo loans and other loans that do not conform to standards set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A similar percentage expected more delinquencies.

For subprime mortgages, about 70% of banks that offer such loans had tightened their lending standards, but more than 90% of the banks responding to the survey said they do not offer any subprime loans.

About 60% of banks tightened their standards for home equity lines of credit.

Homeowners Should Be Taking Defensive Measures IMMEDIATELY!

Homeowners need to defensive right now.For those homeowners who still can, now is the time to take defensive measures. Home values are dropping at historic rates, lenders are tightening up underwriting requirements for the minority of mortgage products still left in the market place. Unemployment is rising. The stock market is falling.

Now is the time, before witnessing further deterioration, to make household budgets as affordable as possible to weather the coming perfect storm of financial woe.

Adjustable rate mortgages should be refinanced to the current low fixed rates. First and second mortgages could be consolidated. Consumer credit, credit cards and installment loans, should be looked at for consolidations. Overall, the household budget should be scrutinized and made as manageable as possible.

Why this needs to be done now

The United States economy is entering what is shaping up to be the worst recession of my lifetime. To offer perspective, I entered the work force under the Carter Administration. This recession is firming up to be worse than any economic downturn including and since the stagflation era under Carter.

Here are some tell tale signs of the severity of the coming recession.

The economic perfect storm is upon us.The reasons for taking action right now are numerous. The case for an economic tsunami is real and frightening. But now is not the time to be the proverbial “deer in the headlights”. Negative developments are coming at us at break neck speed. Like a linebacker, homeowners need to read the play and react to it immediately.

Fairfield County, in Connecticut, is already on FreddieMac’s official “Declining Markets List“. That means prices in Fairfield county are declining measurably. Which also means homeowners in this county have already seen their ability to refinance impacted in a very negative way.

We have seen firsthand, clients and friends who have been negatively impacted by the rapidly evolving negative state of the lending industry. We had one client who is currently months down on their mortgage payments, see several approvals go into the trash can due to lenders going out of business or taking programs off the table.

I cannot stress strongly enough that time is of the essence. Prices are falling and loans are harder to qualify for by the hour.

Thirty year fixed rates are hovering around a very sensible 5.25%. Don’t wait for rates to go lower. Even though they may go lower, falling home values and tighter qualification requirements can sabotage your ability to refinance, either making it more costly or perhaps impossible.

If you have visited the links in this article, you can plainly see we are in for the roughest economic environment since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. In light of this, it’s time for homeowners to become as defensive as possible. Meaning homeowners should shrink and fix their housing costs and perhaps, overall budgets.

The perfect storm is here. Are you prepared to weather it?

Credit Score Authorized User Scam Coming to an End

The sales pitch goes something like this. “Raise your credit score by fifty to one hundred points immediately”. You may have received the spam or have seen the banner ads. I consider it fraud and Fair Isaac, the creator of the Fico Score, is ending the party.

First off, there is very little that is immediate with credit scores. Everything takes time to filter through. Thats true for on time payments, late payments, credit increases, usage, etc. This “instant gratification element” alone should serve as a warning that something is amiss.

It works like this. The scam artists find people with good credit and credit lines that they are willing to rent. These people are hooked up, for a fee paid by the latter party, with people looking to raise their credit score.

The people looking to raise their score are added to the good credit person’s credit card as an “authorized user”. By adding a credit line that is paid on time and has at least 50% of the credit line available, a credit score can indeed be raised.

With the proliferation of scam artists and fraud, Fair Isaac has decided to change their scoring model to end the scams. In other words, authorized user rentals won’t work any longer.

Authorized user abuse is addressed on the Fair Isaac website as follows:

June 5, 2007 - (Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA) - Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FIC) today announced that it will adjust its FICO scoring formula to ensure the continued reliability and predictive power of FICO scores. This action is intended to protect lenders and FICO scores from abuse of authorized user credit card accounts by a new kind of credit repair service that sells consumer credit card histories to credit applicants in order to purposefully misrepresent the applicants’ own credit history to lenders and other businesses.

The adjustment removes authorized user accounts from consideration by the scoring model in FICO 08, the newest version of the Classic FICO credit score which Fair Isaac expects to become available to lenders starting in September.

Fair Isaac will work closely with lenders to help them implement and benefit from the FICO 08 score as it becomes available.

As a consumer, don’t be taken in by the fraudulent manipulation of authorized user accounts. Save your money and time and take the traditional steps to improving your credit scores.

In light of today’s mortgage meltdown, fraud accusations are being pointed at everyone from the borrower to the credit rating agencies. It would be interesting to know to what extent authorized user manipulation was involved. Knowing their data capabilities, I am sure the credit reporting agencies could easily provide us with this information.

Mortgage Lender or Mortgage Broker An Easy Decision

The non-choice between mortgage lender and mortgage broker.You may have heard the commercials “we’re the lender, we write the checks”. Lenders like to make a big deal out of the fact that they are lenders and not brokers. Why? I don’t know, as it makes little or no difference from the borrower’s perspective.

Both can rip you off and both can give you the best interest rate and closing costs. Both can make the financing experience fruitful and pleasant or resemble a root canal. Neither has a distinct advantage in providing a loan for you. How do I know? My company is licensed as both a broker and a lender.

So what are the differences between lenders and brokers?

Technically a broker doesn’t lend the borrower the money. Only a lender can make a loan. They do so through brokers or direct borrower solicitation. A loan never closes in the broker’s name. The broker will not be mentioned on the mortgage note and mortgage or first trust deed. The lender executes those documents. The primary difference between broker and lender is whose name the loan closes in.

This is why brokers cannot issue a commitment letter. They are not lending the money, therefore they cannot commit to making a loan. A broker can however, obtain a commitment letter from a lender and pass it on to the borrower.

The same holds true for interest rate locks. A broker cannot issue a rate lock, not verbally or in writing. The money lent doesn’t belong to the broker, they cannot rate lock someone else’s money. The proper way to handle a rate lock is for the broker to request a rate lock from the wholesale lender and pass it on to the borrower.

Tip:

Broker issued, as opposed to lender issued, commitment letters and rate locks have no value at all. If you ever receive a commitment letter or interest rate lock issued by a mortgage broker, you probably don,t want to do business with that company.

The company is breaking the law. Consider reporting them to the appropriate regulatory bodies. In Connecticut, that would the Banking Department. A report can also be filed on the federal level by contacting the Department of Housing and Urban Development, HUD.

I cannot tell you how many times clients, potential clients and wholesale reps have told me about brokers issuing commitment letters and/or rate locks. As a consumer, you want both in writing. You have nothing unless it is in writing.

Underwriting the Loan

When it comes to underwriting (validating the borrower’s loan file) there are no discernible differences between mortgage broker and lender. If we are brokering a loan we underwrite according to the lender’s guidelines. If we close the loan in our name and act as a lender, the same guidelines apply. Even the largest of lenders have to answer to underwriting guidelines. The only difference is who dictates the guidelines.

The lender makes the rules for the broker and the investors make the rules for the lender. Lenders can sell loans to other lenders for subsequent resale or they can sell the loans directly to investors, either one at a time or in “bulk”. Brokers only “sell” their loans to lenders and one at a time. The consumer gains no advantage dealing with a broker or a lender in the context of underwriting the loan.

Loan Pricing

Whether a loan is brokered or a loan is made, the product is the same as is the pricing (interest rate). Selling loans in bulk can garner a pricing advantage for the lender but that advantage is rarely passed on to the borrower. The consumer doesn’t gain a pricing advantage dealing with either entity.

Consumer Disclosure

Disclosure requirements differ among lender and broker. Lenders are required to make certain written disclosures to borrowers that brokers are not required to make. The same is true for brokers. Again, from the consumer’s perspective, there is no advantage here for the broker or lender. The borrower will still sign a bunch of forms and be afforded certain consumer protections.

Yield Spread Premium

There is a distinct difference in disclosure requirements when it comes to yield spread premium. Yield spread premium is much like selling a bond at a premium. Both mortgages and bonds generate revenue by being sold at a rate higher than the “going” or par rate at the time of the sale. This is how no point loans and no cost loans are offered.

Instead of requiring the borrower to pay points for loan at a given interest rate, for accepting a higher interest rate, the borrower can have the fees covered by yield spread premium. Brokers must disclose this premium to the borrower. Lenders do not have to disclose their premium to the borrower.

I bring this up because there has been a lot press about yield spread premium. Certain politicians who are attempting to demonize brokers and the lending industry, are labeling this premium as a kick-back. Nothing can be further from the truth. Premium is a natural occurrence in the debt markets. If it’s a kick back to brokers, it’s a kick back for lenders and investors as well.

However, it’s not a kick-back.

kick-back: noun

  1. a percentage of income given to a person in a position of power or influence as payment for having made the income possible: usually considered improper or unethical.
  2. a rebate, usually given secretively by a seller to a buyer or to one who influenced the buyer.
  3. the practice of an employer or a person in a supervisory position of taking back a portion of the wages due workers.

from dictionary dot com.

It’s capital gain on the instrument being sold, a profit if you will. Premium is an integral part of pricing debt obligations. Furthermore, in the case of the broker, it is fully disclosed on the settlement statement. A kick back is done without the knowledge of the consumer.

As with the other aspects of securing a mortage, there is no advantage going to the broker or lender.

Summary

In obtaining a mortgage, there is little or no difference working with a broker or lender considering the mechanics of the transaction, loan underwriting, pricing, product design, regulatory protections and yield spread premium.

Both can be upstanding and competent entities to work with or inept ripoffs. From the borrower’s point of view, what else is there? There is no consumer advantage to working with either a lender or a broker. Keep the focus on choosing the right product at a good price from people with a track record of competency and trustworthiness.

Mortgage Tip: If Thinking About Refinancing, Do It Now!

Time is running out on your ability to refinance your mortgage.In the course of a year, the mortgage industry has dramatically changed for the worst. Because Wall Street can no longer securitize mortgages efficiently, we have seen over 180 lenders go out of business and over 100,000 layoffs in the industry. It’s so bad, that even the strongest lenders are at the brink of failure.

Needless to say, this has negatively impacted the mortgage choices once available to home owners. Home owners looking to refinance now will find only a fraction of the programs that were once available to them. Many will not be able to refinance at all.

Now is not the time for procrastination. If you have decided to refinance, you are probably better off doing it right now. If you wait, only more lenders will go out of business and more mortgage programs taken off the shelf. It will be more difficult to qualify for any mortgage programs that are left.

Additionally, home values are falling daily. By waiting, the collateral used for the refinance will be worth less than today. This will affect the over all terms a borrower can get on the refinanced mortgage. Generally speaking, the higher the loan to value, the worse the terms. Value drops can be to the extent that PMI, or private mortgage insurance, could be necessary. Or worse, they can drop to the point where a refinance is no longer possible under any circumstances.

Even though the current interest rate environment might coerce home owners to wait for the coming lower rates, the value being lost in their homes can offset any benefit lower rates offer. If you get a rate that is a percentage point lower than today’s rate, but you have to take out PMI because your value dropped, what good is that? The cost for the PMI can more than offset the lower interest rate.

Besides, conventional rates are very attractive right now. It’s possible to get a sub 6% thirty year fixed rate mortgage as I write this. Fifteen year fixed rates are even lower. These are attractive rates by any standard.

The risk of not having viable refinancing options is too great. If you have a sensible loan scenario awaiting your approval, take advantage of it right now, while you still have equity and the mortgage programs still exist. If you are even thinking about doing anything with your mortgage in the next year or so, I encourage you to look at your options right now as you may not have them later.